Bangladesh’s sustained declines in fertility and mortality have opened a time-bound opportunity to harness multiple demographic dividends. The first demographic dividend, driven by a rising share of the working-age population, peaked in the early 2020s. Its benefits depend on the country’s ability to generate productive jobs and equip young people with relevant skills. The age-dependency ratio has fallen sharply — from around 90 in the 1980s to 53 in 2022, creating fiscal space for greater investment in human capital.
As the working-age share levels off and gradually declines, the second demographic dividend becomes increasingly important. Population ageing will begin even as a sizeable youth cohort remains. Longer life expectancy can stimulate higher savings, investment and productivity through capital deepening and gains in total factor productivity, if supported by sound macroeconomic, labour-market and social-protection policies.
A gender dividend is also within reach. Declining fertility creates opportunities for increased female labour-force participation and higher productivity. Realizing this dividend, however, requires removing structural barriers that limit women’s access to education, skills development and decent work.
Demographic dividends are not automatic. Bangladesh currently underinvests in social sectors, allocating below 2 per cent of GDP to education and below 1 per cent to health. Skills mismatches persist: in 2022, 41 per cent of young people were not in education, employment or training (NEET), including 62 per cent of young women. Gender wage gaps, limited access to decent work, and the persistence of child marriage and adolescent pregnancy continue to constrain women’s educational attainment and lifetime earnings. Looking ahead, by 2050 more than 13 per cent of the population will be aged 60 and above, increasing demand for income security, health care and long-term care services.
Strategic priorities
To translate demographic change into inclusive and sustainable growth, Bangladesh needs to:
- Adopt a life-course and gender-transformative approach to policy and investment
- Increase and improve the efficiency of health and education spending
- Reduce NEET rates, particularly among adolescent girls and young women
- Expand access to decent work and skills aligned with labour-market demand
- Prevent gender-based violence, child marriage and adolescent pregnancy
- Remove labour-market barriers and enforce equal pay for work of equal value
- Mobilize domestic savings, deepen financial markets, raise capital productivity, and strengthen gender-responsive health and old-age support systems
UNFPA supports the Government of Bangladesh to maximize its demographic dividends by strengthening demographic intelligence for policy-making, supporting the update and implementation of population and youth policies, advocating for increased investment in adolescents and young people, and catalysing private-sector engagement on skills development and decent work, ensuring that demographic change becomes a driver of equity, resilience and sustainable development.
